Parliament of Fowls

Another single-figure poll lead for the Conservative Party in the YouGov Telegraph poll. This is down from 14% in the last comparable poll in that newspaper and it is the leading headline in the print edition, suggesting that it is has had an impact on party confidence despite still predicting a 22-seat majority. There is now no room for error with the Tories' lead - either they find a way to continue to land punches on the government or they face a winter of their own discontent as the trend continues. The poll stands at 42-33-15 (Con-Lab-Lib), and the leader writer urges the Tories to show "more boldness" on the economic front despite a well-received speech by George Osborne to the LSE (my former university, where despite being a Labour student I mostly knocked around with the Conservative Future chapter there - if anyone still knows Michael Blackwell and Richard Wignall, tell them even I joined you in the end!).

At the moment I am doing spreads for every poll result or major speech to try and get an even idea of the Tories' prospects. Lately I have been finding that they are internally divided but this is not having an external impact as yet. Once however the bad cards start to filter through to the outcome end of the spreads I do, then serious trouble should be beginning to erupt. At the moment the cards have decided there is still enough advice left unanswered and are hedging their bets about possible and more drastic solutions.

This spread turned out to have thirteen cards so, ever the superstitious one, I added a fourteenth summary card to make sure I didn't prejudice the Tories' outcome too much. I will say that when the article appeared on the Torygraph website just before midnight last night it hit me full in the face like a steam train rather than being a relief. Not good at all, just like in the run-up to the last election where things such as the Howard Flight affair made my teeth go numb with fright even though they had little to no impact on the doorstep. When dealing with the media my initial reaction to any article is quite strong and I won quite a bit of money (all now spent, alas) on predicting the third place results in Ealing Southall last summer, so I do take pride in being accurate with my predicitions. Glenrothes is still hazy, but that's because, as a natural Tory, there is nothing much riding on it directly to be of much interest to my sixth sense.

I will do Glenrothes later - I have a lot of time at the moment - but this was too interesting to pass up.

0. Situation card - VI SWORDS - "The solving of immediate problems, a moving away from imminent danger. Does not suggest complete success which absolves the need for future struggle, but indicates some major obstacle has been oversome and progress can be resumed. May indicate travel away from trouble to more harmonious circumstances and surroundings."

The Tories are relieved by this because it is not as bad as they were expecting, though still a decrease of 5% over the same poll last month. As the card description states the Tories need to keep going - they can't just relax again and float by in a beatific haze. They are being made to work hard to keep ahead. Because in an election polls often come back towards the government, there is not enough slack in the system to take victory for granted, and Tory cards at the moment indicate internal problems which are still - for the moment - not showing external cracks. This will give Cameron something to think about before he goes any further.

1. External reaction (party support) - THE HERMIT - "Indicates a need to retire from activities in order to think and plan. A warning against attempting headlong progress without careful planning to support it. Help and advice from a wise counsellor - this may be another person or the voice of one's inner self. A need to take things slowly, seeking out the right path before proceeding further. Discretion and silence."

The Tories are not making to many rash statements and have closed ranks rather in order to ward off any display of internal indiscipline. It is apparent from this card that there is some sort of isolation or deep contemplation going on - in public at least - and there is a retreat into conservative actions and less flamboyance on the part of the leadership. While the lead is still there, it is now more fragile than previously enjoyed, and the Party needs not to let that panic it at this particular time.

2. Internal reaction (party support) - PAGE OF SWORDS - "He is vigilant and keen-sighted, and makes a good personal emissary. He is diplomatic and skilled in debate and is able to discern the true nature of any affair, no matter how involved. He is an expert negotiator on behalf of his superiors."

This card probably reflects internal discussion of a dainty and delicate nature between opposing factions and could indicate soul-searching going on into how the trend can be turned around or halted, because of the reducing majority forecast (22 at this poll) and the evening out of poll results recently into a single figure lead (8% lead/hung parliament on Oct 28), particularly after the Deripaska affair. A delicate situation needing careful handling.

3. Roots of poll result - KNIGHT OF WANDS - "He is alert, active, swift-moving, unreasoning but highly intuitive. His movements are unpredictable and startling, but are generally seen to be wise in retrospect. He has an engaging temperament."

The party is responsive to its haemmorhage but cannot take full control because of its lack of national executive authority. It is responding to events but not in contrl of the agenda, leading to a situation where thought rather than action (i.e. The Hermit, above) is required to stimulate the falling results. Polls tend to be subjectively analysed, so the lack of dominance is the narrative here despite a lead which would still see a majority government if translated into parliamentary results. The party could not respond to recent concerns, therefore it has shown a loss, rather than a gain.

4. Immediate consequences of the poll - KING OF SWORDS - "He is mentally alert, inventive, of an original turn of mind, and is essentially rational in outlook. He is an advocate of law and order, and an upholder of authority. He seeks executive office in order to see his ideas put into practice. Because of his versatility he often fails through lack of steady purpose; having formulated one plan he then proceeds to the next one with undue haste. He is an advocate of modernity at the expense of tradition."

This tends to sum up the Cameron tendency well and is possibly an indicator that these tactics will not essentially change, both for the better and the worse. Cameron is tied to a course of action and to do a U-turn now would be foolish, although possibly a modification of his philosophy would be beneficial to increase the chances of being seen as a safe alternative rather than losing ratings as Labour get on with the job. He needs to change tactics slightly but will continue in the same way despite requests from people to shuffle Osborne out of the Treasury role to put a more heavyweight figure there.

5. Reaction to the poll (party leadership) - IX SWORDS - "Deception, disappointment, failure, cruelty, unreasoning passions, violence, scandal - all of which can be combated by resignation, passive obedience, faith and calculated inaction. This is the card of the martyr, it brings strength and new life out of suffering."

Again, a largely negative reading for what is a negative change in Tory fortunes as Labour return to active government. The reaction is one which seems to bring out the worst in Tory strategists - blaming all but their own tactics for the deflation of the poll lead. A problematic response to something which still brings them into government territory means things may get worse before they get better.

6. Published commentary on poll - X PENTACLES - "Inheritance, family wealth, blood ties. Prosperity built up through success we generations. Material security founded on the labours of one's ancestors. Can indicate good fortune regarding a will or dowry. The establishment of a family tradition."

The poll is being reported as something that still gives cause for hope - most notably be Anthony King in the Telegraph. Because it still produces an overall majority it is being treated as success and good fortune not to have fallen further, or that a supposed "Brown bounce" is nothing actually of the sort. However this is just how one paper is spinning the poll - others report it in the context of Osborne's speech to the LSE, and connect it with his putting forward of an economic statement, which commentators have been requesting for a while.

7. Lessons learned from poll - VIII CUPS - "Changes in the sphere of the affections. The severing of links with the past which have outlived their relevance. A turning away from established relationships and objects of affection in order to progress to something new and deeper. Can indicate disillusion with the present which inaugurates the growth of greater contentment in the future. A change of viewpoint or perspective."

The lessons learned learned indicate attempts to deal with criticism and take on board that which commentators have been waiting for from the Tories since the beginning of the banking crisis and discussions of recession. Here there is potential for the Tories to gradually reorientate their strategy and begin to respond as well as react. Coupled with the cards above even despite the anxious response to the poll the commentary has still given enough benefit of the doubt to make a Tory victory still possible, so the Tories can capitalise on the necessary elements of current tactics while leaving deeper strategy unchanged.

8.  Advice to the leadership - IX CUPS - "Emotional stability, contentment, a benign outlook, kindliness, liberality, generosity of spirit, feelings of well-being. Inner security which radiates a general aura of goodwill. An affectionate nature. Circumstances which foster these qualities."

There is still time left which enables the Tories to reverse this trend, so long as they don't panic. Reading for depths of public contentment with these results and finding ways to turn the situation to their advantage in the long-term as well as the short means that they will be able to eventually maintain or increase their lead and therefore win the election outright.

9. Warning to the leadership - VIII SWORDS - "Despair, frustration, depression, hard work with little reward. Misapplication of effort.

The workings of fate and perhaps the danger of too much complacency and "ostrich" politics (the Poles have a term for it) might yet dislodge the Tories from this poll position and push Brown and Labour further up. There are warnings here that current efforts are being misdirected or the party is not making the impact it needs to stave off a crisis of confidence in the leadership once the polls consistently go below the level needed for an overall majority. The Party must avoid walking into traps like the Deripaska affair or allow Labour too many open goals, or it will be increasingly trapped (a traditional meaning for this card) without room for manoeuvre.

10. Solution - THE HIEROPHANT - "Good counsel, advice, exposition, teaching. A giver of wisdom or enlightenment, the revealer of that which is hidden. Freedom through knowledge, inspirational help, the comfort of religion."

The Tories evidently need some heavyweight assistance on their side in order to balance their team to cope with the coming months and the election. The chatter is all about whether Cameron will seek assistance from Ken Clarke and John Redwood, but from past form neither of these two men would directly involve themselves with the front bench, nor would Cameron seek them out. This can be assumed to be prescriptive, but there is an element of description in all tarot readings, so I would say someone will be eventually called upon to help, be it KC, JR or someone else with government experience.

11. Direction of Trend - VII WANDS - "Indicates a time of great possibility which requires the exercise of courage and determination if it is to be realised. Points to powerful competition, but victory through sustained effort. Triumph over the vicissitudes of fate through personal valour. Opposition, obstacles, adversities but the promise that success is within reach."

The situation is getting harder to fight as this can be seen as a step downwards from the relative ease of the last 12 months. With the government on the attack there is more of a challenge facing the Tories, who need to raise their game but may not have the current ability to do it without the help of more big-hitters. Trying to re-establish dominance is important here but whether this card is hopeful or a cause for concern is largely still in the eye of the beholder.

12. Actual reaction - IV PENTACLES - "Complete material stabiity. The establishment of a financial or commercial empire. Triumph and the assumption of authority in business. Power achieved through acquaintance of goods and possessions. The card indicates that monetary problems will be overcome and obstacles to business success removed. It shows law and order achieved through commercial transactions and peaceful negotiations rather than the impositions of force."

The IV normally symbolises defensiveness and protectiveness but it also looks like some lessons are learned at a basic level and the party's base remains solid, though not necessarily dynamic. The success and stability here is rooted in being able to hold onto previous gains but does not imply a dramatic gamble taken to increase that standing. Roots in defending existing property are good because they show a willingness to listen to trusted voices; however the absence of risk-taking implied by this does not mean anything more than inertia without substantial use of these gains to push forward.

13. Outcome - II PENTACLES - "The cycles of change at work in the world, the natural fluctuations of fortune which must be allowed for when planning ahead. Indicates movement and changes that are imminent - news, communications, journeys, all connected with business, money, material preoccupations. Stimulating developments which give birth to an atmosphere of light-heartedness, laughter, joy in the pleasures of society. Skilful navigation of the waters of existence, knowledgeable manipulation of the rules of life to attain continuing success."

There is direct movement forecast here though in what direction is not said - fluctuations in fortune are more likely to depend on what the party does from now on in, since the fluctuations are gradually now in Labour's favour and need to be the focus of Cameron's team - pacing themselves - but this has to be done so that the fluctuations inherent in this card do not work wholly in Labour's favour, nor do they stop the Tories eventually gaining the upper hand again.

14. One for luck - THE EMPEROR - "Will-power, self-control, conquest, authority and ambition. Knowledge acquired through experience, creative energy, vigour, all martial qualities. A great person, with influence to put at the disposal of the querent."

The elements of this spread seem to warn of a general uphill struggle, though not as yet as steep a gradient to be worth finding a different path. The Emperor as summary suggests firm control needs to be exerted or imposed to halt and reverse the trend as described in the VII Wands. The Tories need to make a decisive impact before they can undo this general downhill momentum and stop the fluctuations in their results turning into worrying change. They should have the initiative and courage to say what they want to say loudly and clearly to make a decisive impact on this negative trend.

...it doesn't rhyme with "clothes" as I thought previously. My only connection with Scotland is an English uncle living in Alloa who I only see once a year, so perhaps that can be excused.

Next Hubdub question:

Labour seem to be doing better for the moment, so here goes. I will do a more comprehensive reading for this tomorrow, but I'd like to do what I did for Jonathan Ross with something more explicitly political.

Labour - DEATH - interesting - it could either signal Gordon Brown's beginning of the end, or the end of the beginning for him - who knows?
SNP - QUEEN OF WANDS - a responsive quest but now that Labour are picking up in the polls again, both leading in Scotland and not trailing so far behind over the UK as a whole, they might still have some ability to pull things back. I was going to go for Labour, but I'm tempted to vote SNP here because of the ability to create their own destiny rather than just yield to fate.
Scottish Liberal Democrats - IX CUPS - Solid, dependable but also rather self-contained and relaxed. Not good for a political party and an election so perhaps not.
Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party - V WANDS - struggling to make headway in Scotland's more diverse political arena than in the increasingly binary world of England. No chance.
Scottish Socialist Party - IV WANDS - Interesting development here, a stable and balanced outlook - but probably nowhere near enough momentum to overtake the leading four parties.
UK Independence Party - KING OF WANDS - A sense of their own purpose but a long shot because the King of Wands generally does his own thing where advice might otherwise be taken.

I am going to go for the SNP as I do want Labour to win it - it will perhaps concentrate the Tories in England more if they do seem to be winning things back again - but have a tingling "other sense" which tells me to go with the SNP from what the tarot is saying. I've only gone for a $50 stake rather than $100 but we shall see whether my gut instinct is right on this one even when tactically I would vote Labour in this instance.

Barack's turn next.

1. Situation to begin with - QUEEN OF CUPS - "She is highly imaginative and artistically gifted, affectionate and romantic in outlook, and she creates an otherworldly atmosphere around herself. She is highly intuitive and her instincts can be trusted. She has an ethereal beauty which does not depend on external aids. She is easily influenced by events and the people she comes into contact with, and can become all things to all men. She evokes a happiness that is not dependent on earthly success."

As with John McCain, the emphasis in this campaign is an approach which takes into account the voters' perception of the candidates' images, rather than specific policy issues. Barack Obama's primary vote was predominantly young, and attracted a high turnout because of his message, hopes and aspirations, while Hillary tried to run on experience gained during her years as First Lady to Bill. Obama has matured during the course of his campaign from a rather awkward video that I saw last November to the dizzy heights of parading on the world stage even before polling day and inauguration. He enjoys the added bonus of suiting this image while it sits ill-at-ease on McCain and Palin's shoulders.

2. Obstacles - DEATH - "The enforced removal of something which should have been dispensed with voluntarily, but which is now taken. The element of chance - the apparently wilful aspect of destiny which takes without reason."

This card has come up for me before in Obama's spreads and refuses to go away. In many modern packs it speaks only of transition or transformation rather than physical termination. Using printed descriptions goes some way to ameliorating the possibility of subjective interpretation of the tarot, but this can never be fully objective, since tarot works on the basis of individual interpretation. While it would be foolish to say that Obama is unprotected and easy prey for anyone to pick off (as indeed recent events have shown, security is tight), nevertheless this element of chance removal can be interpreted in less life-threatening manners. It is difficult to predict what this means - does it mean a shock loss? does it mean that Obama had to overcome more than we thought to be nominated? - so let it stand on its own merits and we will see what this card brings with it.

3. Goals - THE HERMIT - "Indicates a need to retire from activities in order to think and plan. A warning against attempting headlong progress without careful planning to support it. Help and advice from a wise counsellor - this may be another person, or the voice of one's inner self. A need to take things slowly, seeking out the right path before proceeding further. Discretion and silence."

Obama probably wants to mature in office with the help of Joe Biden and this may describe their relationship; it also may predict that if he takes office he aspires to maturity and consideration rather than the ephemeral and emotion-driven rhetoric that has propelled him into the limelight. Concerns about his maturity compared to others in Washington shows that he must have some idea about how to be his own man, rather than just a figurehead as Owlperson believes George "Dubya" Bush Jnr. to have been in his administration.

4. Approach A - THE LOVERS - "A time of choice, the outcome of which is of crucial importance. Reliance on intuition rather than intellect is advised, on inspiration rather than reason. This card can indicate a flash of insight that resolves an apparently insoluble problem. Also a moral choice which depends on maturity and integrity for its outcome."

Obama has an image which depends on being a beacon of hope in a dark world and to bring a few of the above qualities into the office of President. Using intuition rather than reason is dangerous when it is combined with high office but it seems to have presented an alternative to current Republican directions which are blamed for the failure of the American economy and the invasion and occupation of Iraq. It attracts the rest of the world but it is a potentially naive approach which risks a lot once Obama takes office and has to govern along the lines he promised.

5. Outcome of Approach A - X PENTACLES - "Inheritance, family, wealth, blood ties. Prosperity built up through successive generations. Material security founded on the labours of one's ancestors. Can indicate good fortune regarding a will or dowry. The establishment of a family tradition."

Obama shows definite promise and the approach based on intuition and glamour could pay dividends in real terms. This is the approach which would be the best because it plays to Obama's strengths as a charismatic leader and willingness to include within his circle big hitters like Colin Powell. Obama has the chance for change but this is change of a grounded sort rather than change for change's sake like people might fear from him.

6. Approach B - TEMPERANCE - "Success is possible through the careful control of volatile factors. Indictes a situation in which circumstances and people must be skilfully combined for progress to continue. A harmonious partnership is sometimes revealed."

The alternative to approach A - within reasonable expectations for Obama's political stripe, creed and character - is to calm the message of direct change or perpetual motion and to proceed with caution and dampen down expectations. Obama enjoys the support of a broad coalition and could play it safe and more conservative as the election and probable inauguration approach.

7. Outcome of Approach B - VII WANDS - "Indicates a time of great possibility which requires the exercise of courage and determination if it is to be realised. Points to powerful competition, but victory through sustained effort. Triumph over the vicissitudes of fate through personal valour. Opposition, obstacles, adversities, but the promise that success is within reach."

The more cautious and conservative approach would still be assured of a reasonable outcome but here Obama would struggle with expectations and the possibility of living up to his manifesto promises of change. He would find it difficult to maintain a "big tent" philosophy and therefore advice to him would be to deepen his current position rather than try and build too wide a coalition or relax and let others do much of the work and merely front an administration which, like that of Dubya, was the dominant force behind the throne. Obama needs to be the one to dominate his subordinates rather than coming to rely on them for inspirtion and expertise.

8. Direction of trend - ACE OF CUPS - "The feminine, passive of gestation. The primal quiescence of the Element of Water. Nourishment, protection, the processes of creation, the faculty of feeling. Great fruitfulness is indicated, also fertility and the workings of love in the world. Can predict marriage, future motherhood, joy and plenty."

Obama will probably be the recipient of the US' collective feelings - and votes - and benefit from an out-pouring of emotion and enthusiasm. The blessings here suggest a response to a successful exploitation of the US mood and the message of hope and change, coupled with the unique opportunities Obama's candidacy presents. Support remains constant and the polls point to a comfortable victory and maybe even a landslide.

9. Outcome - KNIGHT OF CUPS - "He is enthusiastic, amiable, open to new ideas. He is a bringer of ideas, offers and opportunities. He is artistic and refined, but easily bored and in need of constant stimulation. He has high principles, but is easily led."

Concerns remain about Obama's ability to be a mature president rather than just a boy wonder. The possibilities of winning are high but so also are expectations, such that Obama makes a good candidate but needs to join some of The Hermit's gravitas and maturity to be a good President. Basing his campaign on his instincts was good but being easily led is not a good thing for the most powerful man in the world - it opens up to special interests, scheming colleagues and hollow promises left unfulfilled. Obama must mature quickly to reap the rewards of the X of Pentacles and balance and ground himself in the realities of the Presidency.

BREAKING NEWS - Jonathan Ross has been suspended for 12 weeks without pay. Half-and-half with Hubdub...!!!

On to America. John McCain may be heading for defeat, but it's not all over until the fat lady (or Sarah Palin, whoever is most available on the day) sings. I decided to look at whether he could yet pull it off, and have read for both him and Barack Obama.

I had some interesting readings for both McCain and Obama, so here is McCain's cards - while there is still a lot to play for.

1. Situation to begin with - QUEEN OF CUPS - "She is highly imaginative and artistically gifted, affectionate and romantic in outlook, and she creates an otherworldly atmosphere around herself. She is highly intuitive and her instincts can be trusted. She has an ethereal beauty which does not depend on external aids. She is easily influenced by events and the people she comes into contact with, and can become all things to all men. She evokes a happiness that is not dependent on earthly success."

McCain here is being the consummate politician, as this card also came up for Obama in this position. Both candidates are projecting an image they hope will appeal emotionally to voters and coming across as touchy-feely rather than hard or rational. McCain is defiant in Defiance (OH), and ripped up newspapers confidently declaring Obama the winner a week before America goes to the polls. Both candidates, despite the difference in their campaigns and polls, are starting from the same base and campaigning in the same underlying style, mindful of the need to appear more in tune with the voters than was previously the case.

2. Obstacles - QUEEN OF WANDS - "She is overbearing, matriarchal, unable to allow her loved ones independence of thought or action. She is vain and self-righteous, tending to take offence over imagined wrongs, and striking out at those who mean her no harm. She has a sharp tongue and a cruel wit."

This is probably Sarah Palin making her entrance - McCain thought he was getting a winning element but actually laid himself open to an ambitious and rather verbally profligate running mate who began to alienate and intimidate rather than boost McCain when he needed it most. The ill-dignified Queen of Wands in other areas suggests reactionary and over-sensitive action which leads to problems when the stakes become too high. Thus McCain's obstacle is his partner and perhaps an excessive resorting to spontaneity, which more often than not increases the likelihood of painful and dangerous gaffes.

3. Goals - EIGHT OF WANDS - "Hopeful change, movement, activity. The ending of delays and the speeding-up of all matters. Suggests a suitable time for taking the initiative, acting with courage and self-confidence, and grasping opportunities as they occur. A favourable omen for news and communications of all kinds, the promotion of understanding and co-operation. Important journeys are shown - particularly travel overseas or to a new country. This is not a card that indicates success in itself, but it suggests conditions which can lead to success."

It is unfortunate that McCain's partner showed such lack of political nous because McCain has plans for his presidency - but to get to this goal he needed someone to keep their mouth shut and out of trouble, and she didn't do that. However, perhaps McCain shows here that grand plans don't always equal success; this card can also indicate things going quite fast but not always hitting the target in the way that pays the actual dividends of political office.

4. Approach A - THE WORLD - "The final and successful completion of any matter in hand. The summing-up of a question or series of circumstances. A culmination of events. The ending of a cycle of destiny."

McCain needed to go for gold, to sweep all before him by being the only show in town. While that was difficult to do as Barack Obama's opponent, he tried to use Sarah Palin as a foil by using her gender as a match to Obama's race. Presenting the duo as the Republican answer to the Democrat ticket and establishing themselves as a match for Obama's camp would probably have seemed a good idea at the time - so long as Palin did not use that platform as her own trial run and made sure she harmonised her goals with McCain. Establishing themselves as more experienced and competent than Obama would have reduced his advantage considerably.

5. Result of Approach A - FIVE OF PENTACLES - "Poverty, destitution, material worries, unemployment, loss of security. This card warns of severe material adversities ahead, but suggests that this enforced restriction in one area of life may open up possibilities in others. Important bonds may be formed with those in similar circumstances, and avenues still remain to be explored. The message here is 'do not despair'."

Tarot books tend now to be focussed on advice rather than concrete outcomes, but the negative quality of this card suggests that the scenario in The World would not trump the kudos afforded the first black Presidential candidate with a chance of getting elected. This is not a satisfactory approach, and although the Five of Pentacles in an advisory role counsels the need not to succumb to despair, as a prediction it is not a favourable omen, nor does it suggest the right course of action in the first place when appearing as a potential outcome to a particular strategy. It is foolish for McCain and Palin to present themselves as the date with American destiny that no doubt influenced the choice of running mate.

6. Approach B - THE CHARIOT - "Success, triumph over the obstacles life throws in one's path. Secure progress, victory achieved through personal effort, the triumph of initiative. Not success which is inherited, or the product of fortune."

McCain and Palin need to display sheer bullish ignorance of the polls and push forward defiantly in order to have any hope of beating Obama. The Chariot is reckless and unbridled as a course of action, and some decks illustrate it with two horses pulling the cart apart in their efforts to get ahead. Palin and McCain have been charged with acting at cross purposes, so this would show that this is probably true and is more descriptive than prescriptive. Nevertheless, McCain and Palin cannot do much more than push forward and try their hardest to salvage something from this; Palin particularly as a fairly young politician will be looking to establish her own constituency for the next election or the one after that, and that could lead to the horses beginning to pull in opposite directions as polls begin to solidify into actual votes.

7. Outcome of Approach B - KNIGHT OF CUPS - "He is enthusiastic, amiable, open to new ideas. He is a bringer of ideas, offers and opportunities. He is artistic and refined, but easily bored and in need of constant stimulation. He has high principles, but is easily led."

In McCain's case this increasingly illusory momentum may not convince people that he and Palin are able to govern effectively, despite their age and experience in top-flight Washington politics. The Knight is always a follower, not a leader of events, and McCain and Palin are, arguably, into a damage limitation exercise from a Republican point of view. He needs to salvage what he can, but as the best possibility here it is still runner-up that he is looking at, barring unexpected events.

8. Direction of trend - THE HANGED MAN - "The ability to adapt to changing circumstances. Flexibility of mind. Willingness to submit oneself to the dictates of the inner self and cast aside practical considerations when the time is right. Wisdom and guidance from the unconscious."

McCain and Palin are probably in suspense now until the outcome of the election is clear. They cannot let up the pace but possibly realise that the suspension in which they find themselves means that it may not be their night on November 4. They are waiting to see what will happen now, and do not have the time to try and pull it back in their favour.

9. Outcome - QUEEN OF PENTACLES - "She is sensible, down-to-earth, wise and compassionate. She is a lover of comfort, splendour, ostentation, the grand occasion and the grand manner. She is lavish in her affection and her gifts, magnanimous and forgiving. She has a responsible attitude to her wealth, and uses it to support and advance those in her domain. She is not unduly intelligent or intuitive, but has a highly developed sense of feeling. She appreciates the good things of life."

This is an interesting card, and an enigma. It might not be as bad as predicted for the Republicans, and while no-one is really banking on a Republican victory, this card indicates that the Republican team emerge from this satiated and balanced rather than broken and bruised. Although it is a zero-sum game, unlike in Britain where fluctuating polls mean fluctuating majorities or lack thereof, and Obama is predicted to win (and my sixth sense has never let me down, even when I have been on the wrong side of the game), there might be something salvageable from the Republican camp to make sure that they emerge with experience, balance and perception rather than being utterly destroyed and bereft. The Queen is also a skilled administrator, so balance and focus on the real issues of management rather than wild claims, promises and hopes is presaged for McCain and Palin.

Just joined HubDub, an interesting news forecasting site. Not in the league of tarot, but although they invite people to email them exploits for "gaming" the system, I've been using tarot cards to try and beat the system with an offline exploit of my own. Tarot is not binary - there is no "yes/no" system - but I want to try and see whether it can be used for straight prediction rather than analysis of the finer points of human activity.

 

So I thought I'd practise on Jonathan Ross, as if he has not had his fair share of discomfort over the variously-named Sachsgate or Manuelgate, where Russell Brand and Jonathan Ross made lewd comments on the answer-phone of Andrew Sachs, Manuel from Fawlty Towers, about his grand-daughter's sexual activities. I personally will make my decision based on cards, so here goes.

Yes - JUSTICE - Honourable choices. In other words, for Ross to resign would be the right thing - but is it the done thing?
No - 2 COINS - Cash flow. Probably the safest bet for your H$s, seeing as the current trading activity is at 85%.

So my vote is going to be No, because although I think he should do the right thing and take a short career break, it seems as if he is relatively safe and thus I will bet H$100 on what I believe will be the answer. Sadly H$ do not translate into real GB£, but it shows how and what you can do with a pack of tarot cards. 

Fraser Nelson writes in the Spectator today giving advice to "Gidders" on what to do now that Yachtgate is a thing of the past. Although some bloggers on Conservative Home suggest that the article will have limited readership (and thus do limited damage), the Spectator does tend to feed gossips elsewhere in the mainstream press. It may also be contended that if its limited readership extends only to its targets we might actually get somewhere again. While Russell Brand and Jonathan "Woss" might be the subject of calls for a Commons debate on the issue (?!? - have we really got nothing else to discuss?) Nelson's arguments make interesting reading for anyone who thought Osborne's troubles were largely over.

I am also road-testing Lucy Cavendish's Oracle Tarot, which promises "always a positive choice, no matter what the situation". No Devil, no Death, no bad cards - just like the Tories' preferred image.

1. Inspiration for Nelson's article - THE HIGH PRIESTESS - Inner Guidance. "You are entering a time when your intuition will be extremely accurate and sensitive. You will also be able to exercise discipline, restraint and spiritual dignity. You may seem to be a little distant and aloof during this time; however a more accurate impression is that you are listening to your higher self so intently that earthly practicalities are going unheeded at this time. You will do the right thing for all concerned - even if this is indeed the hardest choice to make."

In other words Fraser wrote the article because he had a hunch he might get through to the leadership where others have failed, and that the Tories are not basing themselves in the real world but in the future world where they are governing, not opposing. This is probably a good thing on balance - they are casting themselves as an alternative government - but Fraser feels he is able to bring them down to earth again. Although based on rational input and output, with the role of the media such as it is, politics is based largely on what feels right - look at the success of Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton, even though strategy might have suggested age before beauty - rather than what is necessarily worldly. So in writing Nelson is trying to do the best he can to get through to the higher wavelength the Tories are currently on to make sure they are aware of what is going on down on Earth with the rest of us.

2. Response from Team Cameron - 8 CUPS - Contemplation. "You're in one of those existential fog zones that should come with warning signs; you're wondering what it's all about, this existence thing. Are you really just a fun ride for a piece of DNA determined to get passed on to another generation? Come on. There's a lot more to you than a random dot on life's matrix. Take yourself to bed, get a massage, read Herman Hesse - indulge this fog - until you can't stand yourself anymore. Dare I say now that you know how everyone else has been feeling? Treat them to some of your famous laughter and show them you're back."

I would rather not treat criticism with "famous laughter" but rather with serious thought, but that's just me, I'm not still odds-on favourite to be the next Prime Minister. Given that we are dealing with actual response to this article rather than just advice for Team Cameron, the image of someone in bed on this card seems somewhat peculiar when what we are seeing from a lot of different sources is that we need some action rather than just contemplation. Although a certain amount of introspection is valuable, particularly after what has gone before, perhaps three years' worth is a little excessive and needs drastic curtailment here. Nevertheless I have found the tarot provides both advice and warning - you may think you understand that the future is mutable, but as I regularly find, you ignore warnings at your own risk - because warning can turn into reality very quickly.

3. Impact of this article on the wider scene - 5 SWORDS - Challenges, problems. "While everything looks bleak at the moment, remember that everybody has times like this. So now it's your turn - well, welcome to the learning curve, my friend. This is actually quite inspiring - this is when you can start to take real control of your life. It's all too easy to feel and be marvelous when things are going well, but it's these tougher times that make you strong. Meditate, keep calm and take what action you can - bash a pillow, [or sack a party chairman caught fiddling their expenses], not other people, when you feel furious. Things are going to change - you can bet on it. The question is, will you leave this time a better person? Now, that's one question that you, and only you, can determine the answer to. In other words, it's your life - if you don't like it, work on changing it. If you can't change it, work on changing how you feel about it."

The article may be small and low-key, as well as still equivocal enough to have most people accept it as advice not excoriation, but even a positive, affirmative pack of cards (traditionally, because the pioneers of the modern tarot are mostly American, cards are sold in decks, not packs, but Owlperson is rather stuck in his British ways and insists I call it a pack not a deck) has to have a card or two for when things go wrong. The impact is still only half that needed in traditional packs to wipe out a leadership rather than just give it a kick in the right direction, but since the Brown bounce renewed itself the uphill struggle on this card has become a reverse landslide rather than the hopeful signs in the summer that DC and co could maintain their bubble and turn it into more of a shell to get them through until 2010. This is a challenge the party has to rise to, otherwise it could fall quite far and quite fast back into a rerun of 2003.

4. Direction of trend - TEMPERANCE - Balance, harmony. "The quest for balance and a certain harmony is challenging you at present: it requires a certain kind of calm, steady approach and an almost scientific method to understand the components that will help you to balance and harmonise your life. If you think creatively, and then use a well-thought-out process, you can bring seemingly opposing elements into harmony - whether its friends or relatives, or aspects of your own personality or work life. There is a way to transform your life: if you can fuse creativity and organisation, you'll create a wealth of opportunity and enjoyment in your daily existence."

Team Cameron obviously take something to heart to try and rebalance the party in the favour of people with ideas and opinions beyond their own viewpoints. Balancing out their modernising trends by taking on board criticisms of being lightweight would be good and evidently - this is descriptive not prescriptive - it begins to happen. Ken Clarke and John Redwood are posited by people on Conservative Home as an alternative Treasury team; however realistically neither of these two men have taken full Shadow Cabinet roles since the end of the 90s, Ken Clarke not at all since 1997 and Redwood preferred to stay partially on the backbenches in order to assist Michael Howard but to spend a little more time with his constituency than the average Shadow. I'm not sure whether balance means bringing back big hitters in the manner that Barack Obama chose Joe Biden as his alter-ego after similar criticisms, or whether it means incorporating some more ideas that look more like a government in waiting and less like an opposition whose only pronouncements are what they would do in the short-term.

5. Overall outcome - THE STAR - "You are entering a blessed time of new hopes and its best companion: fulfillment. You will be awash with inspiration, and the best news is that your sense that all will be more than well is not simply wishful thinking - it's the kind of wishful thinking that will materialise. You will feel more energised than you have for some time, will enjoy the magical simplicity of life: nature, the stars at night, the dew on flowers, the sweet smell of new blossoms, the musical call of birds, the beauty of an eggshell-blue sky after rain, the operatic drama of an orange and scarlet sunset. Nature will make your soul sing. This time can occur after you have been tested in some way by the Universe: allow yourself to revel in this time of rebirth and joy. Delight in life - it is as the Universe intended it to be for you."

In some packs The Star can be ephemeral - hope and optimism in abundance but still a mountain to climb. If concrete use can be made of this article, in other words, it will have the intended effect for the Party as a whole and Cameron's prospects in particular. The lazy naivete of the card description is in some way similar to the effect Barack Obama has had in the US. But another article in the Spectator asks - is that enough? The Republican Party too want to model themselves on Team Cameron after what is assumed to be a defeat, even a heavy one. But substance is always needed to bring politics down-to-earth, and Brown's gain has been significant in that the first major economic crisis of New Labour's tenure in office seems to have brought out the best in Labour, not the worst, as the party hangs in there together and improves its responsiveness to public worries. The Star is a relief somewhat - I doubt anyone wants to see yet another change of leader before 2010 - but its danger lies in the intangibility of hope and optimism in the face of the need for root-and-branch construction of a proper alternative to Labour's robust plans.

On to Peter Mandelson's status report. Please believe me when I say I am a Tory supporter at heart. I am not making these readings up, it was actually because political readings started showing some interesting developments that I started this blog.

Same spread as for George Osborne's spread from earlier. Mandelson has always intrigued me as an operator and I used to use him as a principal character in my cartoon diary because, together with Michael Howard, he was just about the most obvious walking cartoon character in the House of Commons (now the House of Lords, of course). The temptation to go back to drawing him got to me the other night and hopefully I will upload part of the strip once I can get it inked and coloured properly.

1. Situation in question - II WANDS - "Good advice being given and received - in the card we see two figures talking closely together, as if secrets were being shared or important guidance asked for. In one hand we see a crystal ball, which we take as having been used for scrying purposes." [Scrying is the act of reading fortunes or divination in general. It usually refers to visual techniques such as crystal gazing rather than symbolic oracles such as tarot.]

This is Mandelson sharing rather too much with Deripaska, and there is an air of secrecy about the whole thing that suggests that issues discussed are bargains, deals or agreements not for public consumption. A conspiratorial air about the whole thing.

2. Nature of Difficulties - VII SWORDS (ill-dignified) - "The need for vigilance. Also, an important but worthwhile sacrifice being made. A rather shadowy figure creeps into our encampment and makes off with five swords, leaving behind two that he cannot carry."

Mandelson is faced with the people willing to disclose what he had done for their own purposes (the Tories embarking too fast on attempts to discredit him) but carrying off something of value in the process. Mandelson had two weapons left (the ability to disclose what Osborne had been doing there too, and therefore damaging him more in the process), but it still remains that there was something of value in allegations of misconduct.

3. Past Form - VI PENTACLES - "Rewarding on the basis of merit. Sharing is the theme here. But how do we go about rewarding fairly? This card would also look at how we choose to share our time and energy with others, between ourselves as individuals and our family and so on."

Mandelson was the recipient of recent good fortune and the benefactor of Brown, and thus is able to stabilise Labour somewhat. His assistance has been timely and therefore naturally he was the (legitimate) target of scrutiny to make sure things balanced out.

4. Future developments in general - VII PENTACLES - "Hard work, but approaching the harvest time. Notice how in this card we are only approaching our harvest time, i.e. a point when we can witness all of our efforts paying off and materializing. The figure in the card shows someone working with a hoe, not a scythe or other cutting instrument. The hoe is used for making water channels through which the plants can receive water. As he stares at the ripening crop, we become aware that it is still not yet ready to be plucked. As you can see, some of the Pentacles are still very small on the plants."

Mandelson unfortunately will be remaining in post to prepare Labour to fight the next election, as de facto minister for propaganda or otherwise. There is a serious attempt to get down to business and a need for Mandelson to concentrate on his current job and his role as an election co-ordinator or assistant in that department. A serious attempt to make sure he stays out of trouble in order to protect himself within the government and party.

5. Impact on the Party - THE STAR - "The Star in a spread normally shows that powers that have been hidden until now will begin to show themselves. Thus, vital new energies begin to enter in on the equation. New encouragement, new motivation. Help from above.

Mandelson has reinvigorated his Party despite the problems over Deripaska and although he has been questioned he has largely survived any problems. He can now turn back towards the roles he has been assigned under Brown. This card speaks of hopes rather than their actual fulfilment, but the impact on Labour has been negligible given Mandelson's ability to turn the tables on Osborne while still facing scrutiny himself.

6. Impact on Self Image - THE HERMIT - "The Hermit shows us one possible way towards liberation of the human soul, rather than necessarily the only way in which that is achieved. Thus he could well lead us out of the rocky pass we find ourselves in. But we shouldn't be too quick to avail ourselves of what he offers us in its place. Caution is advised here, even if we do choose to follow his lead and take the path of renunciation which he suggests. Essentially we shouldn't rush at this point. Let us look instead at what other options there might be."

Mandelson is alone in this crisis and has insulated his actions from damaging the rest of the government. Although he must take good care to make sure he avoids compromising situations, this will probably help to make certain that he does not make a similar mistake. By being circumspect and keeping aloof he will find it easier to walk his own path than have others like Deripaska cross it too often.

7. Impact on Career - PAGE OF PENTACLES - "A young sergeant-at-arms stands looking out onto the horizon. Represents looking at one's own economic horizon for something new to get into. An alternative meaning is the preparedness to take on new responsibilities, as the young sergeant gets ready to become an officer."

Mandelson's career is renewed and focussing on new horizons. The Page normally represents the seeds of new ideas and growth; for Mandelson it probably indicates he is learning how he needs to be seen now and learning from mistakes he has made. Seeing a veteran of political life as a page is interesting. But it does mean that lessons are being learned all the time and Mandelson treats his role as one where he is starting again from the bottom and working back upwards.

8. Direction of trend - IX WANDS - "Allow other people to support you in your undertakings; you don't have to be defensive."

There is no need for Mandelson to worry - Labour is rebounding thanks to his assistance and their strategists can be thankful that this has damaged Osborne more than Mandelson in the long run, if only because we expect more from someone like Osborne who has seen where Mandelson has gone wrong in the past.

9. Outcome over time - PAGE OF WANDS - "Learning and/or travel is shown here, as the Page prepares himself for a journey which will take him through foreign lands, suggested by the mountains shown in the distance."

Mandelson has got to start from scratch again and work his way back into the heart of the political arena. He needs to sharpen Labour's game - which he is already doing - and also needs to steer himself round trouble which hers caused him problems in the past. Doing this in the manner of a Page he appears to humble himself and learn rather than teach, an approach which will strengthen him in the long run.

A short spread to assess the continuing significance of Yachtgate now that the shooting war is virtually over.

First of all, my interest is in Osborne because most people know what Mandelson is like and that he should be in trouble is not surprising. Osborne however is regard as one of the brightest minds of his generation and yet he was badly caught out by trying to beat Mandelson at his own game. The Tories have a history of trying to spin against New Labour (none of that NuLab stuff here, I still have some respect for my alma mater so long as the Tories continue to beat about the bush) with David Miliband the subject of a "Stop Miliband" unit eighteen months ago and the Diet Torygraph full of earnest young Tory wonks trying to force Miliband not to stand in the Labour leadership contest. To me it smacked of desperation that the Tories depended on personal attacks to cover up their lack of ideas. Now it seems downright criminal and that it backfired was actually justice of a sort, regardless of what you think of Mandelson (which in my case is "not a lot either"). To say it cynically, the Tories should stop trying to launch ad hominem attacks and concentrate on their next manifesto - if they have one yet.

Anyway, that's just the opinion. Tarot dwells in the realm of uncovering hidden truths and projecting the way forward, and this is what I got for Osborne's prospects. Mandelson will follow in the next post.

The book descriptions of the cards come from Terry Donaldson's "Step-by-Step Tarot" concentrated meanings section.

1. Situation in question - X CUPS - "Emotional commitments. A man and a woman stand arm in arm, and feel themselves to have arrived at a point where they can stand and take stock of what they have created for themselves for their own happiness. This card is not predicting marriage, but instead is getting the Querent to look at what it is they want from their loving relationships - what commitments do they intend to make and which ones to keep? How do they go about choosing someone as a partner? Should they be more choosy and expect more or are they content to take 'second best'?

Here I believe GO overindulged and made an immediately unwise choice in the middle of what, for him, was supposed to be the fulfilment of his career. The card is the apex of its suit so GO was at the apex of his career when this scandal broke. He made some misjudgements which caused problems later on, probably through too much Retsina and too little thought.

2. Nature of Difficulties - THE LOVERS (ill-dignified) - "Promiscuity, guilt, venereal disease and AIDs. [NB all metaphorical - otherwise the Tories have a bigger shock coming than previously thought...]

George was playing away from home and got caught out of his depth. Playing with the international jet-set as a politician is always risky, but messing with powerful political opponents like Peter Mandelson doubly so. An excess of sensual titilation caused a few indiscretions which looked very dangerous in the cold light of day.

3. Past form - QUEEN OF WANDS - "If it represents a process, it shows mastery over the level of action, required by the situation. Initiative."

GO has shown himself to be the Tories' brightest and most intelligent spokesman, and his networking skills are obviously excellent. Ultimately he was too good at his job and gave the impression that he was socialising too far in the wrong direction. The past nous and gumption he has shown was impressive but also foolhardy when it entered the wrong arena and left safe territory. The Queen of Wands can very volatile - she is good at responding to the situation but not at taking the lead.

4. Future developments in general - ACE OF CUPS - "Emotional fulfilment. Here we see a cup which 'runneth over'."

The future is still set to overflow, making the most of good things but with the temptation for it to occur again ever present. George needs to see the promise shown here overflowing in a good way so that everyone in the party and the electorate benefits from his talent, not just the party treasury and his own lifestyle.

5. Impact on Party - STRENGTH - "A pointer towards exercising your qualities of reason, rather than to respond with anger, injured pride or feelings of self-importance. The lion on his own can be a very destructive force but when feelings are brought under the jurisdiction of the mind, then something more positive can be derived."

Osborne has been lucky to survive this and the Conservative Party has not been destroyed by this affair. However, a destructive force has been reined in - the mere existence of such a tendency could shorten the leash more severely than David Cameron did earlier this week. Maintaining a grip is also a conscious burden on the party and loosening this stance could again unleash concomitant problems again in a much more dangerous way for the leadership.

6. Impact on Self Image - THE EMPRESS - "The representation of harmony, which doesn't necessarily show that that is what you are experiencing. But it suggests that you look at how that can realistically be achieved. In terms of creating, the card is asking what it is that you are hoping to create; how and for what do you wish to harness your creativity?"

George needs to look at why he is in politics - is it for social reasons or is it to put his talents into the creative business of running the country and an economy? He is happy with his job still being largely intact, even as a strategist, but needs to look at why he is where he is and get a better idea of his purpose before he goes any further towards a position of actual authority.

7. Impact on Career - IX PENTACLES - "Gaining recognition, in one's own and others' estimation. The figure here stands dressed with a beautiful set of medallions around her chest. Reminiscent of the golden medallions awarded to athletes at Olympic competitions, it suggests the achievement of honours or recognition as the direct result of the individual's own efforts and abilities."

GO has acclaim and reward but this is a very passive card - his career has not suffered because of the ambiguities of what has gone on but the static element of this card suggests a very cautious and slow-moving progression and development which may be difficult to maintain. It suggests an observer rather than a participant and one relaxing in luxury, which indicates that he is resting on previous laurels rather than acquiring new ones.

8. Direction of trend - VIII PENTACLES - "Skills properly acquired. This card is similar in some ways to the Three [of Pentacles], in that it shows the same working tools being applied. Only here we have them being utilised in a far more professional manner than in the Three, where the figure was just beginning to get to grips with them. From the face of the man, who now has a beard, showing maturity, while in the background he has amassed a small stockpile of pentacles which he has displayed on the wall behind him."

The development here is positive, with lessons being learned and applied in order to repair any damage done to the party and to make sure it doesn't happen again. Action here is taken by someone experienced and diligent - it may be necessary to correct the way in which the party is going, and systematically reforming the way in which it is financed and avoid similar mistakes and overtures from large corporate backers with dubious legal standing. The mistake needs a lot of repair work done and much of this is still to do.

9. Outcome over time - ACE OF SWORDS - "Breakthrough. We have here the upraised sword, emblematic of victory. We are reminded of all the legends to do with swords, such as King Arthur and Excalibur, Siegfried, etc. The cutting of the ties that bind."

The impact this has on the situation over the longer term is to dramatically change the way in which the party does business and teach those who run it how to govern. The leadership - Osborne in particular - is forced to move from a passive and comfortable position into an active and forceful role in order to make sure the lessons of this are absorbed into the party's fabric. Issues which seemed trivial to some have a drastic impact on the long-term future of the party and a decisive bearing on the nature of the personnel involved.

Mandelson's reading will follow asap.

This is the Labour Party version of the reading I did for David Cameron and the Conservative Party. I've used the same positions for Brown and his party as I did for the Tories, and I'm trying to be objective here.

1. Current Situation for Brown - KING OF SWORDS. "He is mentally alert, inventive, of an original turn of mind and is essentially rational in outlook. He is an advocate of law and order, and an upholder of authority. He seeks executive office in order to see his ideas put into practice. Because of his versatility he often fails through lack of steady purpose; having formulated one plan he then proceeds to the next one with undue haste. He is an advocate of modernity at the expense of tradition.

Brown appears to have mastered the form of his message but not yet the concrete and underlying solidity which he claims to operte with. To me this shows a political leader who knows what to do but lacks the raw power to put it into practice. (I used this card as the significator when I used to read for Michael Howard's prospects in 2003-05.) Brown has resumed authority but needs to find a real purpose and meaning behind it before he can regain a convincing poll lead.

2. Current Situation for the Labour Party - THE MOON. "A crisis of faith - only intuition, not reason, can carry the querent forward. A situation in which one has only oneself to rely on."

The Labour Party has recently been talking about being 'in the zone' - able to win the next election if they keep their nerve and hold on. A lot depends now on faith in adversity and historically Labour has always been better at this than the Tories. I have been in both parties and the inner dissent  which has brought down numerous Tory leaders is replaced in Labour by appeals to an overall goal or project which is more than the sum of its parts and consequently allows more internal harmony.  Labour enjoys this self-belief while the Tories, despite internal debate often being a good thing and providing a necessary safety-valve at times, need to understand the way Labour are currently more self-confident and see the glass half-full rather than half-empty.

3. What Brown thinks of Labour - THE LOVERS. "A time of choice, the outcome of which is of crucial importance. Reliance on intuition rather than intellect is advised, on inspiration rather than reason. This card can indicate a flash of insight that resolves an apparently insoluble problem. Also a moral choice which depends on maturity and integrity for its outcome."

Gordon is obviously working closely with his party and going on previous strengths, taking nothing for granted but calming fears - they are working in close unity through difficult times. He is using what he has got in the party to inform him in government, and after a rocky year he has managed to protect enough key interests to keep the wolf from the door.

4. What Labour thinks of Brown - STRENGTH. "Opportunity to put plans into action if one has the courage to take a risk. Morally, the defeat of base impulses. Reconciliation with an enemy - this can be outside oneself, or else refer to unruly forces within."

In a sense, Labour has both the patience and the respect for Gordon to keep calm and hang together in the face of a renewal in the conditions for a "fourth term...within our grasp", as Tony Blair stated in May 2005. Labour are in control - and thus could depose Brown if they wanted to - but they prefer to keep things together for the sake of the party.

The preponderance of Major Arcana cards here suggests that Labour is being held together by forces beyond its immediate control and maintaining calm beyond petty concerns. Given the historical longevity of leaderships in the Labour Party this is not surprising and suggests a fundamental difference in internal consistency that the Tories in their reading appear to lack.

5. What Gordon is keeping from the Party. VI PENTACLES. "Balance and solvency in material affairs. Income equals expenditure and the wheels of commerce turn smoothly. This is the card of the philanthropist who uses wealth not to build himself up but to help others rise up in the world also. It indicates charity, sympathy, kindness of heart, and the gratitude of one who has been well-favoured by fortune. Gifts, awards, help from above, patronage."

Gordon has been keeping control of his political profligacy. I noticed during the summer, when he was meeting the returning Olympic team from Beijing, that he looked far too relaxed for the position he was supposedly in. He was presumably playing his cards close to his chest, and I believe this conservatism helped him store up the advantage for when he needed it this autumn, though in reality the polls bounced back in his direction before he nationalised the banks. Successful leaders tend to lie low during the bad times and store up energy for the good times, or the times when they have the attention of the country upon them such as at conference. Brown is probably hiding more goodies from Labour in order to be able to release them slowly when he needs a boost later on.

6. What Labour is keeping from Brown. TEMPERANCE. "Success is possible through the careful control of volatile factors. Indicates a situation in which circumstances and people must be skilfully combined for progress to continue. A harmonious partnership is sometimes revealed."

Labour too never wants to say "never". It is not fully in control of the situation and is also keeping its cards close to its chest. Temperance is a good card in many circumstances and it seems Labour will put up with a lot simply to stay in power, though it is reserving judgement on Brown just in case the current "bounce" is of the "dead cat" variety. Temperance can indicate stasis or stagnation in an ill-dignifiied position, but with Labour feeling better about its prospects at the next election, for now it is content to be 'in the zone'.

7. Direction in the near future. KNIGHT OF WANDS. "He is alert, active, swift-moving, unreasoning but highly intuitive. His movements are unpredictable and startling, but are generally seen to be wise in retrospect. He has an engaging temperament."

Labour have the initiative in this situation and seem to move with alarming alacrity and with a stridency and confidence that only the input of the above cards can provide. Although there is still more intuition than definite confidence driving the party forward, Labour's ability to be pro-active in government has probably calmed fears of general election wipeout.

8. Advice to Gordon Brown. THE MAGICIAN. "Points to strength of will, the expansion of the personality, a willingness to face risks, initiative that will lead to success and triumph. Also adaptability and versatility, diplomacy and self-confidence. Can indicate the commencement of an important new cycle in the querent's affairs."

Gordon needs to continue to be responsive to events and to dictate the agenda. He needs to recognise and use the tools at his disposal in order to kickstart the economy and develop his relationship with Labour so that it does not go sour again. Bringing back Mandelson and Campbell - both magicians in their own ways - suggests he is willing to use all the tricks of the trade and act less ponderously than before - he just needs to keep going.

9. Advice to the Labour Party. THE HANGED MAN. "The ability to adapt to changing circumstances. Flexibility of mind. Willingness to submit oneself to the dictates of the inner self and cast aside practical considerations when the time is right. Wisdom and guidance from the unconscious."

There is a sense that the Labour Party has to hang on and wait for things to get better but they are at least listening to their inner reason and collective intuition - operating as a block has always been their strength and has meant fewer, on average, changes of leader historically. The maintenance of collective nerve is important and perhaps - for Gordon's detractors - an element of self-sacrifice while he proves himself to the electorate and shows that he still has the talent and expertise to lead the country through the recession.

10. The Outcome of the Discussion. THE FOOL. "Indicates an influence which is unexpected and unplanned, but which exerts a powerful force on the matter in hand. It is a challenge that can transform the situation in the querent's favour if properly handled. It indicates that an important decision or choice will have to be made. If this card is well-placed, flanked by fortune cards, then a wise decision will be made, and perseverance will bring its rewards. If badly placed, surrounded by unfortunate cards, warning of impending error, The Fool can also indicate the indicate the imminent start of a new cycle of destiny, and can refer to a type of person - the creative dreamer."

This card is showing that there are still a lot of unknowns about the future and dependency on events is key in this situation. This is doubly true if the Tories learn the lessons of recent weeks and start plugging some of their gaps. Labour cannot take anything here as written in stone, but the favourable nature of the spread is a good start and the internal discipline and intuition here are characteristic of Labour's internal structure. Brown has recently averted serious breakdowns in his relationship with the party. There is confidence in The Fool setting out on his journey, but since this is an unknown quantity Labour must continue to be guided and keep 'in the zone' by working together.

I've done this mainly because there is something going on over on Conservative Home which is utterly amazing - the Cameron supporters actually petitioning the leadership to get going with something structurally sound to halt Labour's advance back up the greasy poll. An Independent survey this morning put the Tories only 8 points ahead of Labour and below 40% for the first time in months, with this meaning that if it came to a general election tomorrow the Tories would not get an overall majority at all - falling short by 8 seats.

I asked the question - What is the relationship between David Cameron and the Conservative Party? I used a spread for the relationship between two people, and this was the result. I will post a similar reading for Gordon Brown later on, in the interests of balance, but I must say this and similar readings I've done privately is quite interesting in that the balance of power between DC and his party has shifted considerably over the last few months.

1. Current Situation for Cameron - VI SWORDS. "The solving of immediate problems, a moving away from imminent danger. Does not suggest complete success which absolves the need for further struggle, but indicates that some major obstacle has been overcome and progress can be resumed. May indicate travel away from trouble to more harmonious circumstances and surroundings."

First of all the idea for DC is that he is hoping to move on from "Yachtgate" and deal with the immediate issues. It seems all but dead now for Osborne so DC is now moving on to more policy-making and publicity-seeking, including backing calls for Russell Brand and Jonathan Ross to be sacked over the despicable Andrew Sachs stunt.

2. Current Situation for the Party - III WANDS. "The successful launching of a great venture. Original ideas finding expression. Inspiration which is being rewarded. Strength arising from enterprise and effort supported by powerful convictions. This is the card of the artist and the inventor who turns a dream into reality.

The party is initiating its own development and discussion. The III Wands suggests that a certain security has been lost and a risk has been taken with stability for the promise of greater creativity and spontaneity. The party is providing a degree of input into Cameron's project and trying to guide its leader rather than staying quiet.

3. What DC thinks about the Party - VII SWORDS. "This card advises prudence and foresight when facing powerful opposition. Although a direct confrontation would be disastrous, victory can yet be attained by seeking out the enemy's weak points and disarming him in advance. But courage and perseverance are required. Great danger is stressed but also the possibility of triumph through cunning.

The party and DC are in opposition to each other, which is suggested by the volume rising on Conservative Home - though for now it is mostly constructive criticism it tends to suggest DC is trying to move ahead despite opposition from within.

4. What the Party thinks about DC - VI WANDS. "Victory, triumph, the arrival of great news. The complete fulfilment of major hopes and wishes. Success earned by hard work and originality, satisfaction in what has been achieved. The skilful overcoming of all opposition through the use of diplomacy instead of force."

The party is getting its case across to DC and is being persuasive in its use of discussion and debate to get the leadership to listen. This is not that the party feel it is on to a winner with DC - it means it has succeeded in imposing its core view on Cameron after a passionate debate on the matter.

5. What DC is keeping from the Party - IX SWORDS. "Deception, disappointment, failure, cruelty, unreasoning passions, violence, scandal - all of which can be combatted by resignation, passive, obedience, faith and calculated inaction. This is the card of the martyr, it brings strength and new life out of suffering."

In other words, there is a deception going on - Cameron is trying to get on with his job of leading the party but it looks as if he is trying to maintain a facade of cheerfulness masking more systematic difficulties which he may have in the public arena. He is warned about being caught either with his pants down or without anything to say, and is having to deflect attention away from this lacking on his part.

6. What the Party is keeping from DC - KING OF PENTACLES. "He is of a practical down-to-earth nature; cautious; methodical; skilled in practical techniques and traditional crafts. He is loyal, trustworthy and patient. He has an inborn wisdom that enables him to achieve material success and even amass great wealth, despite his lack of imagination or intellectual deviousness. He is somewhat inarticulate, but is capable of deep thought long the lines that engage his interest. He is slow to give affection, but devoted to those he loves; he is slow to anger but implacable towards those he hates."

In other words, the party is wanting something from DC which would give him the qualities of a real leader, or they are selecting his replacement. Erring on the side of caution here, they are seeking someone who can match Brown now the economy has been running down, and who can provide a more solid outlook for the party. They are with-holding this figure, so I suspect that there might be signs of tension in the Tory camp as Labour reunites itself and begin to rediscover some of its reasons for existence.

7. Direction in the near future - II WANDS. "Strength of will bringing ideas to pass. Firm rulership resulting in peace and justice. Riches and authority attained by just means. The responsible wielding of executive powers. Courage and initiative resulting from high motives. Earned success. Wisdom attained through experience."

This points to some kind of resolution of tensions revealed above but in what shape or form I am not sure I want to predict. Cameron has historically been bad about responding to advice or events (such as Derek Conway and now Yachtgate) quickly and has taken days to reach where previous leaderships have taken hours. This is resolution of disagreements but as in cards 5. and 6. the party wants something which Cameron is having difficulty delivering, so what the resolution could be is anyone's guess.

8. Advice to David Cameron - PAGE OF WANDS. "He is ambitious and resourceful, enthusiastic and adaptable. He is a messenger who brings good tidings, stimulating news, witty gossip. He is by nature faithful and trustworthy, vigorous in the service of those in authority over him."

DC needs now to raise his game and become quicker in responding and not get caught out by unruly subordinates such as George Osborne and Caroline Spelman. He needs to be the first to say things, not weigh in later when things have passed their peak. Although the Page of Wands is an insubstantial figure, this suggests to me that DC will still try and outfox Brown rather than give a more solid footing to Tory policies. I'm not sure this is wise with Mandelson looking likely to survive his encounter with Oleg Deripaska on the Queen K, but Cameron ought to know what he is doing by now.

9. Advice to the Party - IV CUPS. "Emotional happiness and fulfilment which has passed its peak and can proceed no further. The establishment of a family. The passive enjoyment of that which has already been attained. But the card indicates a new dissatisfaction which the things of this world cannot assuage. Fulfilment having been attained, what can follow? Love is perhaps turning into familiarity."

The Tories need to assess whether they are content with Cameron or not, or else try and goad him into more pro-active responses to current issues. They are getting restless and looking for a solution to tip the balance back in their favour in order to become more direct and more resourceful. They need to tell Cameron to put up or shut up - soon.

10. Outcome of this discussion - X CUPS. "A peaceful and secure environment. The search for fulfilment is crowned with success. Perfect love and concord between people."

If DC can square a few circles and raise his game, he might reconcile the internal debates before they became external disagreements. However, I would note that the X of Cups is transient whereas its counterpart in the Pentacles is more permanent, and that this is the card I drew for Boris' success in the London mayoralty elections, so there are possibilities for short-term success but a longer-term question-mark. There is still a chance to put things together and begin to set the agenda again.

This blog is intended to be a light-hearted look at British politics with some forays into friendly - and not-so-friendly - neighbouring territory.

I am broadly Conservative, though have had reservations about David Cameron since he took office. I also read tarot as a hobby, so part of this blog is to share my predictions based on oracles and divination, mostly with my tarot cards but also with other systems, the I Ching, oracle and angel cards, and the help of my spirit guide Owlperson :} who knows a thing or two about politics and is willing to share his insights. Owlperson will share his thoughts on animal totems - and is prepared to divulge here only that Cameron himself is a fox, with the emphasis on the kssss, and that previous Tory leaders have been snowy owl, squirrel, rabbit, mouse and two bears (brown and polar) - and yes, that is in the right order. Animal totems tell us both positive and negative things about ourselves and while it is always possible to adopt new totems, certain animals are with us throughout our life (or lives) and shape our basic personality. As a Fox Cameron is elegant, sophisticated, sharp and witty - but that comes at a rapacious, greedy, conniving price. Similarly his predecessor, Michael Howard, as a Snowy Owl, was deep, thoughtful and very cuddly (I should know, I've met him several times and he never fails to engage people who are otherwise put off by his public image) but also has a quick temper, can be very aggressive and moody and does not shrink back from a fight. Snowy Owls are the hard-men of the owl-world...

I also draw cartoons and comics of British politics based on Owlperson's observations. They are of a rather personal nature but I will upload any here which would be intelligible to a wider audience.

I am going to upload my first post tonight but will need to have a think on who to read for and how to go about showing the cards as a pictorial scan. I use a number of decks but mostly for this blog I will use the Angel Tarot by US Games as it is brightly coloured enough to be interesting to look at but does not include too much unnecessary detail or symbolism. I might use Aleister Crowley's Book of Thoth as well but my copy is huge and I am debating whether or not to sell it on eBay and buy a smaller version, as the Master himself is not to be ignored but my scanner is only of a certain size.

If anyone would like a private reading I will be pleased to assist - please email me at louise.stanley@live.co.uk. I don't believe in charging extortionate amounts of money for tarot (I have been desperate for readings at times and have become depressed at the expense involved) so this is a free three-card (past-present-future plus any clarifying cards) service.

First off I think I will read for David Cameron over the next week as it looks like our Tory friends are in a little bit of hot water over Yachtgate and their rather lacklustre response to the economic issues has contributed to a "Brown bounce" in the polls. I will also probably have a look at Brown himself but to me the Tories have always been - and probably always will be - the more interesting faction in British politics and, as a regular contributor (at the moment anyway) to Conservative Home, I can most closely follow the reactions of their membership.

As for my reading habits, I normally use all upright cards but will indicate where I feel a reversed or ill-dignified reading is necessary. I use Alfred Douglas' book "The Tarot" as a primer but both I and Owlperson will offer insights into what we think the direction is depending on how the situation can be interpreted.

I hope you enjoy reading this blog as much as I hope I will enjoy writing it.

Louise Stanley

P.S. My money is on Barack Obama to win the presidency of the US, but my vote would still go to McCain if I had one. Such is life. Though that Death card I pulled for Obama back in the spring has yet to show itself in reality, so anything could happen between now and inauguration day in January.